The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.

Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth.

Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities, and some indicators of inflation expectations have been elevated. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain.

Although downside risks to growth remain, the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred an increase in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

This week will be interesting for the bond market and mortgage rates. There are five remaining economic reports scheduled for release, but only one of them is considered to be of high importance to the markets. With data being posted all but one day of the week, we may see some noticeable fluctuations from day to day in mortgage pricing.  Generally speaking, despite the lack of a data-packed calendar, I would still maintain constant contact with your mortgage professional.

Interest rates remained volatile last week as worries about inflation continued to influence the mortgage market.   Comments from the Federal Reserve indicated that the current rate of inflation is above desired levels.  When the Fed is concerned about inflation, they tend to raise interest rates.  We recommend locking now before they go up.

Inflation data continues to hammer headlines and our wallets. News this week demonstrated what we have all been feeling; prices are higher at the pump, the grocery store and anywhere else you use your debit card. Interest rates trade off of bond prices and bonds HATE inflation. Coupled with this is concern about a declining economy which could hold rates back a bit, but the overall trend is higher for those seeking a mortgage in coming months.

Volatility being what it is these days, mortgage rates bounce around a lot. Upward pressure for rates one day gives way to downward pressure the next, only to succumb to upward pressure again.

The see saw between concerns about growth and fears about inflation tilted toward the inflation side again this week, after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke addressed Congress in the semi-annual report on monetary policy. While detailing the challenges facing the economy, Bernanke noted that inflation was above desired levels and that upside risks for higher prices have “intensified” lately. A Fed seeing higher inflation usually can be expected to react with an upward move to the Fed Funds and Discount Rates at some point in the not-too-distant future. In fact, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee explicitly noted at its last meeting that “with increased upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations, members believed that the next change in the stance of policy could well be an increase in the funds rate.”

The federal banking and thrift agencies today issued final guidance outlining the supervisory review process for banking organizations implementing the new advanced capital adequacy framework known as Basel II.  The final guidance relating to supervisory review is aimed at helping banking organizations meet certain qualification requirements in the advanced approaches rule, which took effect April 1.

The advanced approaches rule consists of three pillars:  minimum risk-based capital requirements (Pillar 1); supervisory review of capital adequacy (Pillar 2); and market discipline through enhanced public disclosures (Pillar 3).  The final Pillar 2 guidance details the agencies’ standards for ensuring that each institution subject to the advanced approaches rule has a rigorous process for assessing its overall capital adequacy in relation to its risk profile and a comprehensive strategy for maintaining appropriate capital levels.

Although the guidance does not differ significantly from the proposed Pillar 2 guidance issued in February 2007, the agencies made some enhancements based on comments received and in consideration of key lessons from the events of the past year.  The Pillar 2 guidance is being issued by the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Office of Thrift Supervision.  The effective date of the Pillar 2 guidance is 30 days following its publication in the Federal Register, which is expected shortly.  The final Pillar 2 guidance is attached.

2008 Banking and Consumer Regulatory Policy

The Federal Reserve Board on Monday approved a final rule for home mortgage loans to better protect consumers and facilitate responsible lending. The rule prohibits unfair, abusive or deceptive home mortgage lending practices and restricts certain other mortgage practices. The final rule also establishes advertising standards and requires certain mortgage disclosures to be given to consumers earlier in the transaction.

The final rule, which amends Regulation Z (Truth in Lending) and was adopted under the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act (HOEPA) , largely follows a proposal released by the Board in December 2007, with enhancements that address ensuing public comments, consumer testing, and further analysis.

“The proposed final rules are intended to protect consumers from unfair or deceptive acts and practices in mortgage lending, while keeping credit available to qualified borrowers and supporting sustainable homeownership,” said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke . “Importantly, the new rules will apply to all mortgage lenders, not just those supervised and examined by the Federal Reserve. Besides offering broader protection for consumers, a uniform set of rules will level the playing field for lenders and increase competition in the mortgage market, to the ultimate benefit of borrowers,” the Chairman said.

The final rule adds four key protections for a newly defined category of “higher-priced mortgage loans” secured by a consumer’s principal dwelling. For loans in this category, these protections will:

The Federal Reserve is currently reviewing regulations that impose limits on how much investment firms can invest in banks, looking to see if they can make it easier for banks to raise capital.

Is this necessary? Rules were put in place to avoid large Industrial Loan Corporations from controlling banks and the availability of credit. Why would a private equity firms be different?

The European Central Bank’s president is playing down prospects of further interest rate increases. They raised their benchmark lending rate to 4.25%.

“The monetary policies stance after today’s decision, contributes to achieving our objective of price stability. We are never pre committed. It is a constant feature of our monetary policy. We do what is necessary to deliver price stability in the medium term and be credible and that delivery. Thursday’s 0.25% increase will help bring inflation back below 2%. We saw the little bit of a rebound, but that was chili weakness for the zero after this decision”.

With the US off for the July 4 holiday, he really is damping down prospects of further interest  rate increases. Traders took that as a bad sign, by selling the Euro down to a one week low against the dollar.

Nobody much likes the pound because of the UK subprime crisis. The pound has really suffered. They are finding it an excuse to perhaps get back in at some kind of level.What is the general view on the yen? They are saying that it could push stronger. There are some concerns about subprime. Even though the economic news is bad and there is some inflation, they are saying that the yen can be stronger as the dollar is in a general downward spiral. Nobody is betting against that quite yet.

The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced its approval of the notice of Bank of America Corporation, Charlotte, North Carolina, to acquire Countrywide Financial Corporation ("Countrywide"), Calabasas, California, and thereby indirectly acquire Countrywide Bank, FSB, Alexandria, Virginia, and certain other nonbanking subsidiaries of Countrywide.

Attached is the Board’s Order relating to this action.

Attachment (1.38 MB PDF)

Fed Funds Implied Probability

Ben Bernanke says US Monetary Policy is ‘well positioned’; Wachovia fell for second day after ousting CEO Kennedy Thompson; Analysis by Mark Howard, Barclays Capital Head of Credit Analysis.

The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on April 29-30, 2008. A summary of economic projections made by Federal Reserve Board members and Reserve Bank presidents for the April 29-30, 2008 meeting is also included as an addendum to these minutes.

The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board’s Annual Report. Summaries of economic projections are released on an approximately quarterly schedule. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in the minutes and in the Summary of Economic Projections are based solely on the information that was available to the Committee at the time of the meeting.

The FOMC minutes and the Summary of Economic Projections can be viewed on the Board’s website at: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm#calendars.

Minutes of Federal Open Market Committee
April 29-30, 2008: 337 KB PDF | HTML

President Bollinger, Dean Hubbard, Co-Chairman Kravis, and distinguished guests, I am very pleased to be here and especially honored to receive the Columbia Business School’s Distinguished Leadership in Government Award. This evening I would like to offer a few thoughts on mortgage markets and the recent increase in the pace of delinquencies and foreclosures. My particular focus will be on geographic variation in mortgage performance and how that variation can help us better understand and prevent foreclosures. I will also discuss some initiatives taken by the Federal Reserve to address the foreclosure crisis as well as other policies that might be used to strengthen mortgage and housing markets.

Geographic Variation in Loan Mortgage Performance

As my listeners know, conditions in mortgage markets remain quite difficult, and mortgage delinquencies have climbed steeply. The sharpest increases have been among subprime mortgages, particularly those with adjustable interest rates: About one quarter of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages are currently 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure. Delinquency rates also have increased in the prime and near-prime segments of the mortgage market, although not nearly so much as in the subprime sector. As a consequence of rising delinquencies, foreclosure proceedings were initiated on some 1.5 million U.S. homes during 2007, up 53 percent from 2006, and the rate of foreclosure starts looks likely to be yet higher in 2008. Not all foreclosure starts result in the borrower’s loss of the home; sometimes the borrower is able to make up the missed payments or other arrangements are made with the lender. Given the number of borrowers in distress and the weakness of the general housing market, the share of foreclosure initiations that ultimately result in the loss of the home seems likely to be higher in the current episode than customarily has been the case.