Mortgage rates dipped last week to a two month low. But we will likely see them bounce back up in response. Additionally, there is no indication they will go down any further. Inflation is the key driver here, and it is not letting up as the summer gets into full swing. We recommend getting a rate locked now, as they are still historically low.

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Bankrate
When the stock markets lose triple digits and mortgage bonds don’t blink, it’s a pretty good sign we have greater odds for less bond demand — and higher rates. Still no indication that rates are breaking out of the channel they’ve been trading in for weeks. In a phrase, it’s the underlying value of the assets to which mortgage bonds are attached.

Rates fell last week, but they’ll bounce back up. Inflation hasn’t gone away, despite the weak economy. Mortgage rates respond to inflation.

HSH Market Trends
Mortgage rates staged a minor improvement last week, with HSH’s Fixed Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) sliding by six basis points, landing at a flat 6.50%. The FRMI includes rates from conforming, jumbo and the new “expanded conforming” loans. Hybrid 5/1 ARMs also dipped, shedding five basis points to land at 6.11%.

Conforming 30-year fixed rates declined by eight basis points (.08%), while jumbo 30-year FRMs shed seven basis points for the week. It is strange to say, but we should be cheering the lousy growth pattern. If the economy was moving upward, the additional demand would push inflation and interest rates higher. At present, all we can hope for is that the economy breaks inflation before inflation completely breaks the economy.

Overall mortgage interest rates managed a little improvement last week, surprisingly. More or less, rates have been generally flat for weeks, and that stability is a welcome stance in a weary market. Not much likelihood of a huge movement this week, but we may see rates rise a couple of basis points or so.

Mortgage Commentary
The Conference Board started this week’s economic releases with their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) May. It showed a weaker than expected level of confidence with a reading of 57.2 when it was forecasted to stand at 60.0. This was the lowest reading in 16 years, indicating that consumers are not very optimistic about their personal financial situations. This is considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it usually means consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future.

April’s New Home Sales data was also released today, revealing a higher level of sales than was expected. However, today’s report also revised March’s sales lower. This means that sales were weaker than thought in March, but the month to month increase was fairly large. This is bad news for bonds because a weak housing sector usually translates into weaker economic conditions in general.

Tomorrow morning we will see April’s Durable Goods Orders data. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket products. It is currently expected to show a decline in new orders of approximately 1.5%. If this report shows a stronger than expected reading, we should see mortgage rates rise because it indicates manufacturing growth.

>>Apply and lock today to secure your low rate.

If you have found the right home to buy, secure your financing today.

If you have an adjustable rate or need to get cash out of your home, don’t wait for rates to go up even more.

The average time that a home sits on the market when it is for sale is now 11 months.

So what does that mean to you and me? It means nothing. Despite what is said by the professionals, we are still facing the largest portfolio of mortgage resets from right now in May 2008 to September 2008 (Mortgage reset chart).

So what does this really mean? Now we are on to something. Until the underlining mortgage issues are resolved, meaning the homeowners with mortgage resets that become unaffordable, of which only 30% of the affected homeowners are being helped, expect further home depreciation.

CNN.com has stated within the last few weeks that even with all the programs developed by the government, only about 30% of the homeowners can be helped. The reason is obvious. Why does any, for profit banking institution, want to take on the problems of another bank?

And the math is so simple. Add the inflationary pressures of oil, energy and what they mean to consumers discretionary dollars, as well as, the volume of adjustable rate mortgages that are resetting (remember that it takes between 6 months and 12 months to foreclose on a home - every state has their foreclosure laws) and you have a formula saying that we will be having credit and housing deterioration until at least 2010.

Sharpest Declines in California, Nevada and Florida;
Small Price Increases in Strongest Markets

U.S. home prices fell in the first quarter of 2008 according to OFHEO’s seasonally-adjusted purchase-only house price index. The index, which is based on data from home sales, was 1.7 percent lower on a seasonally-adjusted basis in the first quarter than in the fourth quarter of 2007. This decline exceeded the 1.4 percent price decline between the third and fourth quarters of 2007 and is the largest quarterly price decline on record. Over the past year, prices fell 3.1 percent between the first quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008. This is the largest decline in the purchase only index’s 17-year history.

OFHEO’s all-transactions House Price Index (HPI) which includes data from home sales and appraisals for refinancings, showed less weakness than the purchase-only index. The all-transactions HPI fell 0.2 percent in the latest quarter and was flat over the four-quarter period.

The figures were released today by OFHEO Director James B. Lockhart, as part of the quarterly report analyzing housing price appreciation trends. “These substantial home price declines bring positive and negative news,” said Lockhart. “For homeowners and financial market observers, these declines spell further erosion in home equity levels and potentially more trouble for mortgage markets. To prospective home buyers who have been shut out of homeownership because of affordability constraints, these declines may be welcome news, as are continued low mortgage rates“.

Both OFHEO’s purchase-only index and its all-transactions index show much more muted price declines than do other house price indexes. “While house price declines are widespread, homes financed with prime, conforming mortgages continue to hold up better than those financed with other types of mortgages, a phenomenon we’ve been observing for the last several quarters,” Lockhart said.

With this release, OFHEO continues its publication of its monthly price index, which was introduced in February. Monthly price trends are shown on pages 8 and 9 and are provided for months through March. Between February and March, prices fell 0.4 percent nationally on a seasonally-adjusted basis, and they have fallen a total of 3.7 percent since their April 2007 peak.

The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on April 29-30, 2008. A summary of economic projections made by Federal Reserve Board members and Reserve Bank presidents for the April 29-30, 2008 meeting is also included as an addendum to these minutes.

The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board’s Annual Report. Summaries of economic projections are released on an approximately quarterly schedule. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in the minutes and in the Summary of Economic Projections are based solely on the information that was available to the Committee at the time of the meeting.

The FOMC minutes and the Summary of Economic Projections can be viewed on the Board’s website at: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm#calendars.

Minutes of Federal Open Market Committee
April 29-30, 2008: 337 KB PDF | HTML

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As we continue to analyze and manage our product set, Chase has made the decision to discontinue offering our Subprime and Home Equity products through our Wholesale channel.

New Wholesale Subprime and Home Equity registrations will not be accepted after Friday, May 16, 2008.

New foreclosure filings rose 4% in April and were nearly 65% higher than the level recorded a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac.

The company’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report indicates that foreclosure filings, default notices, auction sale notices, and bank repossessions were reported on 243,353 properties in April.

"The total number of U.S. properties with foreclosure activity in April was the highest monthly total we’ve seen since we began issuing the report in January 2005," said James J. Saccacio, RealtyTrac’s chief executive officer. "Although only about 2% of households nationwide are in foreclosure, these properties contribute to already-bloated inventories of homes for sale and put downward pressure on home values."

The company noted California, Florida, and Ohio recorded the highest foreclosure rates in April.

President Bollinger, Dean Hubbard, Co-Chairman Kravis, and distinguished guests, I am very pleased to be here and especially honored to receive the Columbia Business School’s Distinguished Leadership in Government Award. This evening I would like to offer a few thoughts on mortgage markets and the recent increase in the pace of delinquencies and foreclosures. My particular focus will be on geographic variation in mortgage performance and how that variation can help us better understand and prevent foreclosures. I will also discuss some initiatives taken by the Federal Reserve to address the foreclosure crisis as well as other policies that might be used to strengthen mortgage and housing markets.

Geographic Variation in Loan Mortgage Performance

As my listeners know, conditions in mortgage markets remain quite difficult, and mortgage delinquencies have climbed steeply. The sharpest increases have been among subprime mortgages, particularly those with adjustable interest rates: About one quarter of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages are currently 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure. Delinquency rates also have increased in the prime and near-prime segments of the mortgage market, although not nearly so much as in the subprime sector. As a consequence of rising delinquencies, foreclosure proceedings were initiated on some 1.5 million U.S. homes during 2007, up 53 percent from 2006, and the rate of foreclosure starts looks likely to be yet higher in 2008. Not all foreclosure starts result in the borrower’s loss of the home; sometimes the borrower is able to make up the missed payments or other arrangements are made with the lender. Given the number of borrowers in distress and the weakness of the general housing market, the share of foreclosure initiations that ultimately result in the loss of the home seems likely to be higher in the current episode than customarily has been the case.