by Admin on March 1, 2010
This will be one of the most crucial weeks in the last few months for the financial markets.
Very crucial economic information this week, but none more important than Friday’s February employment data.
The key data points this week are personal income and spending for January, both ISM manufacturing and services reports, February auto and truck sales and the Federal Reserve Beige Book release.
Markets are converting the fall in confidence to far more job cuts and no improvement in wealth. We will add that many consumers that have managed to hold on and hoped to wait the recession out, are now beginning to retreat as the end is slipping farther out for many that so far have “weathered” the financial mess.
The early estimates for the February jobs report are for 20,000 additional jobs lost and the unemployment rate to increase to 9.8% from 9.7% in January.
In the beginning of this week we are not really planning on any extra growth in the bond market and we are anticipating the equity markets to be relatively quiet.
Based on the early estimates for the non-farm jobs, we believe the decline in jobs will be more than that and the joblessness level will be climbing back toward 10%.
The decline in interest rates last week is a tale of 2 stories, the ongoing increase in sovereign debt caused by debt problems in Greece and safe haven moves by investors into treasuries that are taking some financial resources off the table.
Look for the week to become progressively unpredictable by midweek as players make adjustments for employment data.
Tags: Consumer Confidence Index,
Mortgage Bond Market,
Mortgage News,
Todays Economy
by Admin on February 26, 2010
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell in January but are above last year levels. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast that completed sales the previous month increased roughly 1% to a seasonally revised annual rate of 5.5 million, up from 5.45 million in December.
Existing real estate sales, together with single family, townhomes, condos and co-ops, dropped 7.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate 5.05 million units in January from a modified 5.44 million in December, but continue to be 11.5% above the 4.53 million unit level in January 2009.
Total real estate stock at the end of January dropped 0.5% to 3.27 million current property available for sale, which represents a 7.8 month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 7.2 month supply in December.
Current unsold inventory is 9.6% below a year ago, and is at the lowest level since March 2006. The national median present real estate price for all housing types was $164,700 in January, unrevised from a year earlier.
Distressed property, which accounted for 38% of sales last month, continue to downwardly distort the average price because they typically are cheaper in comparison with standard real estate in the same area. On the other hand, this is a double edged sword., because the the vast majority of ‘troubled homeowners’ would not be looking to sell their houses if it were not for the terrible economic problems we are confronting in America today.
A parallel NAR practitioner survey demonstrates 1st time new home buyers acquired 40% of property in January, down from 43% in December. Investors accounted for 17% of deals in January, up from 15% in December; the outstanding sales were to repeat buyers. The survey also exhibits that buyer traffic increased 9.4% in January.
Tags: Foreclosure Market,
Home Sales,
Housing Market,
Mortgage Defaults,
Mortgage Delinquencies,
Mortgage News
